Latte time!

Has not happened. Romney has gained in the national polls, has stopped making gains in the battleground states and it has run contrary to my expectations (and prediction) so far.

Obama is looking steady, and still maintains a narrow lead in the electoral college.

The new numbers: 294 to 244 in the electoral vote, 73 to 27 in the winning probabilities column, 50.2 to 48.7.

In the process I discovered a competitor to Nate Silver's aggregated polls: Sam Wang's place. Sam is a little more vocal in his Obama cheer-leading  and he has a rosier, more confident forecast for Obama on Nov 6.  He rates his chances at 90% today.

Humble pie does not taste as good when it is one week old.

Makes you Wonder

Why did the Republican establishment including Mitt, almost immediately ask Todd Akin to quit his bid for Senate (but not his congressional seat) when he said this?

Well you know, people always want to try to make that as one of those things, well how do you, how do you slice this particularly tough sort of ethical question. First of all, from what I understand from doctors, that’s really rare. If it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let’s assume that maybe that didn’t work or something. I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be on the rapist and not attacking the child

...but are not doing the same for Ricardo Moredouche, when he said this?

The only exception I have to have an abortion is in the case of the life of the mother, I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize life is that gift from God. I think that even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.

More importantly, why is our inept media not asking  this question?

Oh they are?  Well, I guess this explains why:

http://www.indystar.com/article/20121025/NEWS0502/121025027?nclick_check=1

Pissfest 2012, Schieffer edition

Al Franken is the author of the #1 New York Times bestseller: Lies (And the Lying Liars Who Tell Them): A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right.  He had an interesting response to what was common in those days at FOX "News" — blaming Bill Clinton for depleting the military and blow jobs. Hannity had presented this little gem in his ghost-written book, Let Freedom Ring:

New tanks requested: 840 by St. Reagan (1986), 0 by Slick Willy (1996)
New tactical aircraft requested: 399 by St. Reagan, 34 by Slick Willy
New naval ships requested: 40 by St. Reagan, 6 by Slick Willy

Now, to address this morbidly stupid means of comparing who was more hawkish, Al Franken offered the following additional column for George the Younger (2002):

Humble pie? Not yet

In a recent post covering the second debate, I had said this:

I expect the numbers to change by Friday such that his chances fall to less than 60%, officially making the race a tossup. Then it heads further south next week.

The numbers mentioned above were from Nate Silver's blog. At that time (10/16/2012) here is how it read:

Obama is favored to win the electoral college 287 to 251. The chances of his win are 64.8% to 35.2%, and the popular vote is predicted to be 50.1% to 48.9%

Well, it is Friday, and I am not going to go all weaselly and weasel "I did not say which Friday." What I will say is that the above forecast of chances falling to less than 60% has not happened yet, but I'll stay with it for a while. Say till next Friday. The SuperPACs seem to have gone in for a huge ad buy later than that I thought.

[Update 10/20/2012]

I won't move the goalposts either and now say "Gallup shows Romney leading by 6 points!"

Here is what Nate's blog says today:

Obama is favored to win the electoral college 288 to 250. The chances of his win are 67.9% to 32.1%, and the popular vote is predicted to be 50.0% to 48.9%

So humble pie no, defeat yes, but soon to be reversed. If this flops too, I'll have some latte with that pie next Friday.

"No Candidate Has Ever Polled Over 50% in Gallup LV Poll in October and Lost" - Karl Rove

Pissfest 2012, Crowley edition

OK, two down, one more to go.

A more spirited debate with very few gaffes, awkward moments or missteps. Obama looked more like himself, Romney looked just as confident and delivered another impressive performance challenging Obama's record on the economy.

He scored again on that front.

Pissfest 2012 Preview, Crowley edition

Upon us, yes it is.

Second mano-a-mano town hall debate.

Kenyan Muslin takes on The Resurgent Mormon.

Well, hate to disappoint you, but this is not going to change anything.

Predictions:

• Obama wins this one because of lowered expectations for him, heightened ones for Romney, and well, it is Obama's turn.
• Chris Matthews will be giddy, Hannity apoplectic over Crowley being in the bag for Obama, and also because conspiracy, theft...OMG WHERE WILL IT STOP!
• Nate Silver's analysis officially shows a toss-up by Friday at the latest. By next week, it'd be showing a lead in the electoral college for Romney.

Why?

For much the same reason I have been mentioning earlier: Romney SuperPACs have been going all in for a while.

Game Changed: It's Official!

Elsewhere I mentioned how debates rarely, nay, never have shown themselves to be game-changers. Well, there is a first now.

Romney's win in the first presidential debate has changed the course of this election. What was rapidly moving to a rout after the DNC, especially in light of Romney's "47% remarks" has reversed course, and so far has shown no signs of slowing down.

To be sure, Obama is still leading in the electoral college polls, and Romney is trailing in key battleground states, but the lead is wafer thin and eroding. To use various sports metaphors, if this were football, Obama was trouncing Romney 35-14 at the 12:00 mark in the fourth. With little over 7:00 left in the game, Romney has cut the lead to 35-27 and has the ball. If this was basketball, Obama was leading 85-61 with nine minutes left in the game. With a little over five minutes left, Romney has cut the lead to 90-83, and Obama's team has two starters with five fouls each.

To put it in Nate Silver's perspective, Romney's chances went from about 13% just before the debate to about 32% today.

So where do I think the race is headed? I'll still stay with my guess made a few months ago. Here, see if it still looks likely.

[Update 10/13/2012: In case it was not clear, I attribute the main reason for the game change to what I mentioned in my forecast in June: The Romney cash machine is working overtime following the debate. There was nothing revealed in the debate that people did not already know, it simply gave an opportunity for the SuperPACs to go all in.]

Why the fuck didn't Obama inject the 47% remark?

This is something pundits were all puzzled about. And Obama supporters? Absolutely flabbergasted, disappointed, angry, but mainly exasperated!

After all, Romney was abandoning every position he once held and simply co-opting every which position of convenience. He was for regulation, green energy, for the middle class, jobs, against tax increases for the middle class, deficits and heck, against his own tax plan.

As he rained blows on a befuddled Obama, it was rather puzzling as to why the rot was not stemmed with a "Governor Romney, how can you stand there and flip your flops when you are on tape vowing never to care about the 47%?"

It seemed like the perfect rejoinder. Surely that would have arrested the progress of the runaway train that was Romney last night.

But Obama showed Herculean restraint.

Why?

Was he stunned into confusion?

Did he not remember?

Was he missing his teleprompter?

No matter what rightwingnuts think of Obama, he is not an idiot. It was not exactly a hard thing to remember.

So why?

Pissfest 2012, Lehrer edition

Finally, it was upon us. The uno of the très mano-a-mano between the RINO Mormon and the Black Muslin from Kenya finally happened. On Leehaaara's (isn't that the way to pronounce it?) watch. Which was not half as painful I thought it'd be. Other than the mundane platitudes replete with talking points from the campaign ads, ninety minutes of oxygen-sucking ensued.

Before this debate, here's what I knew:

• Debates rarely, if ever, have been game-changers, and this one was expected to be no different.
• The National Review or some rightwingnut rag "leaked" the bombshell that Romney was practicing zingers, which of course meant that he wasn't going to be zinger-happy even if he was ever planning on it. And he wasn't.
• Both sides would be downsizing expectations to the point where, each would look inept to lead the free world.

and following the debate

• Each side would claim clear victory.

Ding! I am still batting a thousand. (If I ignore that Obama's side is definitely not claiming clear victory).

Upcoming debates: Predictions

The presidential debates are coming up. I have a few ideas as to what will happen. Let's see how it works.

The overall strategy for the Romney/Ryan ticket will start by the old stand-by of focusing on the economy and raising people's overall fears about the general state of horribleness in society. They will possibly pull out some actual "facts" (whether they are true or not) about how this is all the fault of Obama directly. They will then attempt to capitalize on the fear of the audience and gain votes to cover their gap by using the standby return-to-the-Christian-era-that-never-actually-happened tactic.

Going Rogue: Part Deux

Many notable politicians were missing at the recently concluded RNC. George the Younger, Barack Obama — although he was immortalized by an empty chair, Rick "Sperm Feces" Santorum... and yes the Palins. Both Alaska Palin and Minnesota Palin were not put on stage. Not by accident, Romney did not want two more clueless wingnuts screwing up things any more than they could avoid.

Well, the Clinton home run at the DNC, followed by a series of serious missteps by Mitt has left the campaign reeling, and in serious danger of free falling into irrelevance.

So naturally some want to change course. A reboot. One such advocate is Paul Ryan, who wants to be "unleashed", say campaign insiders. Now remember that Ryan lied about his marathon time, and his body fat percentage. Inconsequential trivia, but one has to wonder why would you go out of your way to lie about something when you do not even need to mention it. It is eerily similar to Zsa Zsa Gabor lying about her age by altering her birth date on her driver's license.

With a sharpie.

I guess being born in 1934 1921 instead of 1930 1917 would have put her in play as a babe!

Mitt gets real with George Stephanopolous

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Is $100,000 middle income?
MITT ROMNEY: No, middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 and less.

From Tax Policy Center:

Nothing more needs to be said.

If Mitt Bullshits and the Media Isn't Around...

Is he still accountable?

Well, how about if the media is around, and actually prompted the questions that led to his steady stream of bullshit?

Word has it that the insipid Empty Chair Yellathon, otherwise known as the Republican National Convention failed to inspire the voters, whereas the Continuing Slick Willy Love Story, otherwise known as the Democratic National Convention did give Obama and the Democrats a pretty big bump.

Lies, damned lies, and politicians

I admit something right up front: I have not been watching the RNC. I can't bear it. Instead I watch the Daily Show to get me a factually-correct and contextually-relevant synopsis. And some snort-coffee-through-my-nose hilarity, of course.

I was watching the Hermain Cain interview from the other night. In order to see the relevant parts, you have to watch the internet interview, which has some extra content, and check out around 24:30. Jon Stewart was actually grilling Cain fairly hard on Cain's support of the Romney ad claiming that Obama removed the work requirement for welfare recipients. 

This is what is particularly amusing about the presidential race this time around. We aren't actually debating any issues. We're debating FACTS.

Another Chick-fil-A freedom of speech day coming up?

As expected, the heart or soul or some orifice of the GOTP has finally spoken up for Akin. Despite calls from Republican "leaders" including Romney asking him to step down, Akin stayed on.

Which should have been our first clue. You see, Akin is an elected congressman from Missouri, but none of these leaders really asked him to step down from his congressional seat. They just wanted him to get out of the 2012 Senate race. If that is not the ultimate in hypocritical deception, it is only because we have a totally inept corporate media who won't probe that blatant disjointedness in principles.

But fear not, the GOTP is so far gone that social conservatives now no longer fear or care about such overtly incoherent positions. Predictably a gaggle of them have doubled down, including Fuckabee and FRC honcho Tony Perkins. Yeah, that KKK supporting Christian supremacist is throwing his weight behind Akin.

It's a miracle that Alaska Palin and Minnesota Palin have not thrown their gravitas behind it. Yet.

Republicans: Ryan ain't your (VP) candidate!

The view of many conservatives that I hear is that they want a small
government. I wrote about this here.

He is so far in favor of heavy hands in government that he doesn't even want people to have protection of their own civil liberties. He thinks that he knows whatis best for everyone else, regardless of what you value or believe. Want to be able to buy condoms at the drug store so you don't have too many kids (which, I'm sure you'll agree with, is certainly a drain on the welfare system in many cases)? Tough shit, according to Santorum. He believes family planning should be religiously-based and that his
views should be imposed on everyone else.

Bain attacks are not working

Psyche!

You know the Obama campaign's Bain attacks on Romney are working when

A. Rush Limbaugh conjures up a dumb ass conspiracy that the villain in the new Batman movie is Bane, a homophone of Bain (get it?), which is, as any Rush Listener can see, clear sign that Hollywood is in the bag for Obama.
B. The ilk of the Palins proclaim that not only will this not work, it'll backfire on Obama and then...
C. Unnamed and named Republican strategists whine that Bain is just like Swiftboating.
D. Polls indicate that the Bain attacks are effective in the swing states.
E. All of the above.

Answer: E.

Seriously how bad is the Romney campaign when it will buckle to this Swiftboating by Obama that he cannot make his case against a President under whom unemployment has remained staggeringly high, has to resort to lying about "they did not build that" and is losing ground with these Bain attacks.

Extra! Extra! Cuban Arab bashes Kenyan Muslin

Apparently the Kenyan muslin needs ‘to learn how to be an American’

Yup, being black, born in Hawaii, having two birth certificates, and usurping the Presidency just does not go as far as it used to. None of that "cachet value" can be found in such accomplishments, nor do you become American by doing all that. What you really need are surrogates. No, not that kind that stupidly carry a baby bump, but one that looks like this one:

Romney was either retroactively neutered or wore magic underwear, because he did not have sex with anyone to produce that lump of flesh.

Besides, everyone knows that Sununu is Mensa+steroids so obviously he knows what he is talking about. Yes, being born in Cuba of a Palestinian father, just like baby Jesus's surrogate dad, he knows what it means to be an American. Taking taxpayer government supplied jets to "fat-cat Republican fund-raisers, ski lodges, golf resorts and even his dentist in Boston" and spending only about $900 for his more than $600,000 worth of gubmint jet travel. Forget Priceline and Expedia, this guy knows a deal when he sees it.

He also singlehandedly saved the US postal service by buying rare stamps in New York, using a limousine to travel from DC to the auction, and then flying back on a chartered jet, sending the limo empty.

That's how he rolled, bitches!

Yes, that guy is asking Obama to learn to be an American.

In other news, the ex-fat bastard claims that the Kenyan muslin hates America.

Is Biden a GOP puppet master?

It certainly seems that way. How else do you explain the steady stream of gaffes from Team Romney, like this one: McCain: Palin was 'better candidate' than Romney?

Seriously? If Alaska Palin was better than Mitt Willard, shouldn't she be the nominee? Otherwise, it'd appear that in the last four years she has taken a dive (she has, but that is not the point) or that Mitt has somehow gotten better (he hasn't).

Or this one from Ed Gillespie (could very well have been Ed Rollins): RETROACTIVELY RETIRED

Can't Biden sue for patent infringement? I mean this is the guy who was trying to figure out how his parents, er, did it, in a dingy little apartment with, like, many people around.

Yes, he actually said that out loud!

Some forecasts

With the SCOTUS about to rain on Obama's signature legislation, this is a good time to boldly make some predictions.

• SCOTUS on ObamaCare: 5-4 ruling declaring the individual mandate unconstitutional, and the ACA gutted.
• SCOTUS on Arizona's SB 1070: 5-3 ruling declaring at least 2 of the 4 contentious clauses constitutional.
• Mitt's running mate:  Tim Pawlenty
• November 6: 

• Mitt, after spending eclipses $1.2 billion on his behalf wins 286 or more in the electoral college

• Democrats gain 3 seats in the House

• Democrats retain the Senate with 51 members in their caucus.