In a recent post covering the second debate, I had said this:
I expect the numbers to change by Friday such that his chances fall to less than 60%, officially making the race a tossup. Then it heads further south next week.
The numbers mentioned above were from Nate Silver's blog. At that time (10/16/2012) here is how it read:
Obama is favored to win the electoral college 287 to 251. The chances of his win are 64.8% to 35.2%, and the popular vote is predicted to be 50.1% to 48.9%Well, it is Friday, and I am not going to go all weaselly and weasel "I did not say which Friday." What I will say is that the above forecast of chances falling to less than 60% has not happened yet, but I'll stay with it for a while. Say till next Friday. The SuperPACs seem to have gone in for a huge ad buy later than that I thought.
I won't move the goalposts either and now say "Gallup shows Romney leading by 6 points!"
Here is what Nate's blog says today:
Obama is favored to win the electoral college 288 to 250. The chances of his win are 67.9% to 32.1%, and the popular vote is predicted to be 50.0% to 48.9%So humble pie no, defeat yes, but soon to be reversed. If this flops too, I'll have some latte with that pie next Friday.
"No Candidate Has Ever Polled Over 50% in Gallup LV Poll in October and Lost" - Karl Rove