Oct 26, 2012

Latte time!

Has not happened. Romney has gained in the national polls, has stopped making gains in the battleground states and it has run contrary to my expectations (and prediction) so far.

Obama is looking steady, and still maintains a narrow lead in the electoral college.

The new numbers: 294 to 244 in the electoral vote, 73 to 27 in the winning probabilities column, 50.2 to 48.7.

In the process I discovered a competitor to Nate Silver's aggregated polls: Sam Wang's place. Sam is a little more vocal in his Obama cheer-leading  and he has a rosier, more confident forecast for Obama on Nov 6.  He rates his chances at 90% today.

Humble pie does not taste as good when it is one week old.

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