Nov 24, 2013

Fat bastard has his work cut out for him in 2016

Suppose that the Democrats field a reasonably well-known candidate. Like Hillary Clinton.

She'll need a total of 270 electoral votes to wrap up victory. While past elections may not always be a strong predictor of future results, especially given that the next election is a distant three years away, it is hard to ignore states that have voted Democratic in the last six presidential elections. That is, these are strong strongholds of the Democratic party.

California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (12), New York (29), New Jersey (14), Vermont (3), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Minnesota (10), Michigan (11), Pennsylvania (20), Delaware (3), DC (3), Illinois (20), New Mexico (5), Maine (2+2), Maryland (10), Wisconsin (10) amount to 242 votes.

Now suppose that Christie manages to convince his home state that he is a moderate and can reverse the trend in New Jersey.

That still makes it 228 electoral votes which are firmly in Hillary's column. She then has to find just 42 more electoral votes. Ohio (18), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6) are states that Obama won twice.

I like her odds.  A lot.

So how will Democrats fuck this up?