tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7844827880580229020.post2550760657389503560..comments2022-04-11T20:31:36.592-07:00Comments on Director's cut: Statistics and manipulation of the ignoramuses (contd.)Citizen1729http://www.blogger.com/profile/03473150367386722079noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7844827880580229020.post-80123779030512889552012-10-12T10:55:13.749-07:002012-10-12T10:55:13.749-07:00Yes, absolutely, I was just nitpicking ;)
Yes, absolutely, I was just nitpicking ;)<br />rappocciohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02892286988757355695noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7844827880580229020.post-52140661289894472692012-10-11T10:17:13.240-07:002012-10-11T10:17:13.240-07:00Thanks.
The point I was making was that the Suffo...Thanks.<br /><br />The point I was making was that the Suffolk pollster was asserting that he did not need to poll Florida anymore because Romney has an insurmountable lead.<br /><br />How does he know this?<br /><br />Was there a series of polls?<br /><br />No.<br /><br />Was there even ONE poll he conducted that showed Romney way ahead in Florida?<br /><br />No.<br /><br />How many polls had he conducted?<br /><br />one.<br /><br />What did that poll show?<br /><br />That Obama was ahead.<br /><br />So he had NO polls he conducted that showed Romeny ahead, one (only one since May) that showed Obama was ahead, and his conclusion?<br /><br />Romney is so far ahead that he will not be polling anymore.Citizen1729https://www.blogger.com/profile/03473150367386722079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7844827880580229020.post-84255200101360415742012-10-11T07:28:18.272-07:002012-10-11T07:28:18.272-07:00One small nit:
[quote]
All it means is that Gallu...One small nit:<br /><br />[quote]<br />All it means is that Gallup estimates that the population of the US today is likely to reject traditional values and prefer no specific set of value by a margin of 52 to 44. Of course, some 4% are unsure, or provide non-responsive answers.<br />[/quote]<br /><br />The 4% uncertainty includes the statistical uncertainty on the sample size. If you queried everyone, then this would be "zero" because it's simply the result. However since the size of the query is only 1000 or so, then, assuming that the 1000 is unbiased relative to the whole, then the fluctuations will be governed by a binomial distribution. Thus, if you repeated the query many times (but still over 1000 people, different people each time), you'd expect a variation, just from statistics, of around 4%. <br /><br /><br />PS for the details, the 95% confidence-level binomial error on a fraction of 52% in a sample of 1000 people is<br /><br />error = 2 * sqrt(0.52 * (1-0.52) / 1000)<br />= 0.04<br /><br />rappocciohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02892286988757355695noreply@blogger.com